| 摘要: |
| 目的 利用文献计量方法，对粮食生产系统适应气候变化研究领域1995—2016年研究态势进行定量分析，并探究其发展趋势，为该领域未来研究提供参考。方法 基于Web of Science数据库，利用Thomson Data Analyzer (TDA)分析工具，采用计量分析方法，分析了1995—2016年粮食生产系统适应气候变化研究领域的总体发展趋势、国际主要研究力量、研究热点及关联性。结果 （1）1995—2016年，全球发文量呈现整体上升趋势，2012年之后处于较高发展水平。其中，美国在该领域发文量、平均引证指数等都远高于其他国家，位列第一。中国在2012年后发展速度较快，发文量及文献相对产出率跃居全球第二位，但平均引证指数与美国之间仍有较大的差距。（2）该领域排名前十的研究机构中，中国、美国各有3个，澳大利亚、法国、英国、荷兰各1个，其中最活跃的机构是中国科学院。（3）从研究机构间的合作关联性看，中国科学院与中国农业科学院之间的研究相似度最高达0.67，且中国国内研究机构之间的合作相似度远大于国际研究机构。（4）气候变化、农业及作物模型一直是研究的热点，近年来研究热点外延至作物物候、产量、土壤、生物碳及温室气体等研究方向。结论 目前，美国在该领域具有较强的竞争力和创新性，中国虽然后期有较快发展，但竞争力和创新性有待提高。气候变化对粮食生产系统的影响分析是当前研究的热点，未来可进一步研究气候变化、品种、社会经济要素等对粮食生产系统的影响机理及其贡献份额，针对不同粮食生产区制定适应气候变化的应对体系，建立综合评价体系，确保粮食生产安全和可持续发展。 |
| 关键词: 文献计量 粮食生产 气候变化 |
| DOI：10.12105/j.issn.1672-0423.20180304 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:中国工程科技中长期发展战略研究领域战略研究“面向2035的我国粮食生产适应气候变化战略研究”2016-ZCQ-08;国家自然科学基金面上项目“基于信息熵模型和空间面板分析的东北水稻时空格局及其演变机理研究”41871358;中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项1610132018017中国工程科技中长期发展战略研究领域战略研究“面向2035的我国粮食生产适应气候变化战略研究”（2016-ZCQ-08）；国家自然科学基金面上项目“基于信息熵模型和空间面板分析的东北水稻时空格局及其演变机理研究”（41871358）；中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项（1610132018017） |
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| Status and trends analysis of research on food production system adaptation to climate change |
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Liang Shefang,Lu Miao,Fan Lingling,Wu Wenbin,Yang Peng
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Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning，Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science/Key Laboratory of Agricultural Remote Sensing，Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs Beijing 100081，China
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| Abstract: |
| Purpose Based on bibliometrics，this paper aims to quantitatively analyze the status of researches on food production adaptation to climate change and explore the development trend.Methods Based on the Web of Science database，the TDA analysis tool and bibliometric methods were used to analyze the overall development trend，major international research forces，research hotspot analysis and research relevance of the field that food production system adapts to climate change from 1995 to 2016.Results In the field of food production system adaptation to climate change，1）the number of published papers showed an increasing trend from 1995 to 2016，and such a trend is more obvious after 2012. The United States ranks first in terms of the number of published papers and average citation index. These numbers for China increased a lot in the recent years. Although China’s relative output rate of paper has been ranked at the second place globally，there is still a large gap in average citation index between China and the United States. 2）Regarding the top 10 institutes in this field，there are three from China and the United states respectively，one from Australia，France，Britain and Netherlands respectively. The Chinses Academy of Sciences has published the largest number of papers. 3）The research similarity between the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences is as high as 0.67，and the cooperation between domestic research institutions is far greater than that between international research institutions. 4）Regarding the research hotspots，climate change agriculture and crop models have always been the core of this field，and the recent research focus extends to phenology，crop yield，soil，biological carbon and greenhouse gas.Conclusion At present，the United States has relatively strong competitiveness and innovation in this field，whereas China has a rapid development in the later stage，but its competitiveness is relatively weak，and innovation needs to be improved. The analysis of the impact of climate change on food production system is a hot topic，and in the future，more attention should pay on the influencing mechanism and share of climate change，variety and socio-economic factors on food production system，developing adapting systems for climate change in different food production areas and building a comprehensive assessment system. |
| Key words: bibliometric methods food production climate change |
