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1978—2020年中国柑橘面积与产量格局演变研究
蒋怡, 李宗南, 董秀春, 王小燕, 王思, 邱霞
四川省农业科学院遥感与数字农业研究所
摘要:
【目的】摸清柑橘面积与产量格局变化和增产空间分异对中国柑橘产业优化发展有重要意义。【方法】基于1978—2020年柑橘生产相关面板数据,从全国和省域2个尺度,利用产业集中率、生产集中度系数、增产贡献率等指标分析中国柑橘近40余年来的面积与产量格局时空演变特征,探究柑橘增产的贡献区域和贡献因素,讨论柑橘产业存在的问题并提出建议。【结果】(1)1978年以来,中国柑橘生产总体扩张,柑橘产业的地理聚集特征显著且缓慢降低;柑橘生产经历了快速扩张期、波动发展期和稳定增长期3个阶段,各个时期的增产主导因素不同,单产提升对全国柑橘增产的贡献显著。(2)各省域柑橘种植面积和产量变化明显,且生产空间差异显著;种植格局由高度聚集且独立分布于中西部省域向东南沿海省域扩张,再逐渐西移内扩;2020年广西已成为全国柑橘生产第一大区域;柑橘增产情况差异明显,增速良好的省域占柑橘主产省域总数的71.43%,主要分布在中部地区,滞后增产的省域主要集中在东南沿海的江苏、浙江、广东和西南的四川;西南和华南省域柑橘增产的主导因素是种植规模的扩张,中部省域柑橘增产的主要原因则是单产提升。【结论】研究结果有助于提高对中国柑橘产业发展变化及存在问题的认识,为我国柑橘产业在保障农产品有效供给背景下优化布局调整、保持产业健康发展提供参考。
关键词:  柑橘  种植面积  产量  LMDI模型  增产格局
DOI:
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基金项目:国家重点研发计划子课题“天空地一体化信息采集与果园智能管理装备研发”(2021YFD1600803);四川省财政自主创新专项“基于合成孔径雷达的四川水稻遥感提取”(2022ZZCX031);西藏自治区科技计划项目“西藏农作物遥感精细识别及监测与产量估算应用研究”(XZ202201ZY0008N);四川省农业科学院“1+9”揭榜挂帅科技攻关“天府农科发展战略研究基础理论和支撑技术”(1+9KJGG009)。
Study on the evolution of citrus planting area and yield pattern in China from 1978 to 2020
JIANG YI, Li Zongnan, Dong Xiuchun, Wang Xiaoyan, Wang Si, Qiu Xia
Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Agriculture,Sichuan Academy of Agricultural Sciences
Abstract:
[Purpose] With the development of social economy and the change of food consumption structure, the demand for fruit is gradually increasing, and the citrus industry is developing rapidly. It is important to understand the changes of citrus area and yield pattern and the spatial variation of yield increase to optimize the development of citrus industry in China. [Method] First of all, we screened and organized the information by collecting statistical data from 1978 to 2020 to form panel data related to citrus production. Second, we selected indicators such as industry concentration rate, production concentration coefficient and yield increase contribution rate to analyze the panel data. Third, we analyzed the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of area and production pattern of citrus over the past four decades at two scales: national and provincial. Then, we used the LMDI model to explore the contributing regions and factors of citrus yield increase. Finally, we discussed the problems of citrus industry and made some suggestions. [Result] The results of the study showed that: (1) Since 1978, the citrus production of China showed a general trend of expansion. The geographical aggregation characteristics of the citrus industry are significant and slowly decreasing. The contribution of yield increase to the national citrus production was significant. (2) The citrus planting area and yield of each province changed significantly, and the production space differed significantly The pattern of citrus cultivation had expanded from a high concentration and independent distribution in the central and western provinces to the southeastern coastal provinces, and then gradually moved westward and inward. In 2020, Guangxi had grown to be the first major region in the country with citrus planting area of 576.60 thousand hectares, production of 13820.9 thousand tons, accounting for 20.36% and 26.98% of the national planting area and production, respectively. The increase in citrus production varied significantly, the provinces with good growth rate account for 71.43% of the total number of citrus producing provinces.They were mainly distributed in the central region, and the provinces lagging behind in yield increase were mainly concentrated in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong in the southeast coast and Sichuan in the southwest.The leading factor for the increase of citrus production in Southwest and South China provinces was the expansion of planting scale, while the main reason for the increase of citrus production in Central provinces was the increase of unit yield.[Conclusion] The results of the study can help us to improve the understanding of the development changes and problems of citrus industry of China, and provide reference for optimizing the layout adjustment and maintaining the healthy development of citrus industry in the context of ensuring the effective supply of agricultural products.
Key words:  Citrus  Planting area  Yield  LMDI model  Yield increase pattern