|关键词: 柑橘 种植面积 产量 LMDI模型 增产格局
|Study on the evolution of citrus planting area and yield pattern in China from 1978 to 2020
JIANG YI, Li Zongnan, Dong Xiuchun, Wang Xiaoyan, Wang Si, Qiu Xia
Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Agriculture，Sichuan Academy of Agricultural Sciences
|[Purpose] With the development of social economy and the change of food consumption structure, the demand for fruit is gradually increasing, and the citrus industry is developing rapidly. It is important to understand the changes of citrus area and yield pattern and the spatial variation of yield increase to optimize the development of citrus industry in China. [Method] First of all, we screened and organized the information by collecting statistical data from 1978 to 2020 to form panel data related to citrus production. Second, we selected indicators such as industry concentration rate, production concentration coefficient and yield increase contribution rate to analyze the panel data. Third, we analyzed the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of area and production pattern of citrus over the past four decades at two scales: national and provincial. Then, we used the LMDI model to explore the contributing regions and factors of citrus yield increase. Finally, we discussed the problems of citrus industry and made some suggestions. [Result] The results of the study showed that: (1) Since 1978, the citrus production of China showed a general trend of expansion. The geographical aggregation characteristics of the citrus industry are significant and slowly decreasing. The contribution of yield increase to the national citrus production was significant. (2) The citrus planting area and yield of each province changed significantly, and the production space differed significantly The pattern of citrus cultivation had expanded from a high concentration and independent distribution in the central and western provinces to the southeastern coastal provinces, and then gradually moved westward and inward. In 2020, Guangxi had grown to be the first major region in the country with citrus planting area of 576.60 thousand hectares, production of 13820.9 thousand tons, accounting for 20.36% and 26.98% of the national planting area and production, respectively. The increase in citrus production varied significantly, the provinces with good growth rate account for 71.43% of the total number of citrus producing provinces.They were mainly distributed in the central region, and the provinces lagging behind in yield increase were mainly concentrated in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong in the southeast coast and Sichuan in the southwest.The leading factor for the increase of citrus production in Southwest and South China provinces was the expansion of planting scale, while the main reason for the increase of citrus production in Central provinces was the increase of unit yield.[Conclusion] The results of the study can help us to improve the understanding of the development changes and problems of citrus industry of China, and provide reference for optimizing the layout adjustment and maintaining the healthy development of citrus industry in the context of ensuring the effective supply of agricultural products.
|Key words: Citrus Planting area Yield LMDI model Yield increase pattern