• 首页 | 主办单位 | 期刊简介 | 编委会 | 作者指南 | 刊物订阅 | 下载中心 | 联系我们 | English | 期刊界
引用本文:王晶,肖海峰.新疆棉区生产空间格局演化及驱动因素分析[J].中国农业资源与区划,2018,39(9):155~161
【打印本页】   【下载PDF全文】   查看/发表评论  【EndNote】   【RefMan】   【BibTex】
←前一篇|后一篇→ 过刊浏览    高级检索
本文已被:浏览 24次   下载  本文二维码信息
码上扫一扫!
分享到: 微信 更多
新疆棉区生产空间格局演化及驱动因素分析
王晶1,2, 肖海峰3
1.中国农业大学经济管理学院,北京100083;2.塔里木大学经济与管理学院,新疆阿拉尔843300;3.中国农业大学经济管理学院,北京100083
摘要:
[目的]利用2000—2015年农业生产统计数据,分析新疆棉区生产空间格局及其主要驱动因素。[方法]采用空间自相关、多元线性回归模型。[结果](1)棉花生产空间差异显著,呈南北两侧向天山南北递增趋势,在业已形成的天山北坡和南坡主产区格局下,“南增北减”趋势增强; (2)植棉区存在空间集聚效应,在时序上表现出持续的稳定性,高值聚集区集中分布于南疆区域,低值聚集区空间范围显著缩小; (3)多元线性回归模型结果显示,人均耕地面积、农机总动力、化肥施用量、有效灌溉面积、非农就业机会、人均粮食产量、与小麦产值比、受灾面积、单产水平、目标价格改革、临时收储政策等对棉花生产均有显著影响,通过不同的作用机理形成当前棉花生产空间格局。[结论]建议发展标准化规模经营,加强全程机械化技术推广应用,完善农业保险及综合性补贴,为棉花生产布局优化和结构调整提供决策依据。
关键词:  棉花生产时空格局空间自相关多元线性回归模型新疆
DOI:
分类号:
基金项目:农业部和财政部项目“国家现代农业产业技术体系产业经济研究”(CARS 39 22)
SPATIO TEMPORAL PATTERN AND ITS DRIVING FACDTORS OF COTTON PRODUCTION IN XINJIANG
Wang Jing1,2, Xiao Haifeng3
1.College of Economics and Management, China Agricultural University, Beijing 10083,China;2.College of Economics and Management , Tarim University, Alar,Xinjiang 843300,China;3.College of Economics and Management, China Agricultural University, Beijing 10083,China
Abstract:
This paper analyzed the spatial temporal pattern and driving factors of cotton production in Xinjiang province, by using agricultural production statistic data from 2000 to 2015. The methods of spatial auto correlation and multiple linear regression model were mainly implemented in this study. The results showed that(1)Spatial pattern of cotton production significant changed, which showed the increasing trend to northern and southern slopes of Tianshan, the main cotton producing areas had been formed in northern and southern slopes of Tianshan, the trend of "increase in south and decrease in north" was significant;(2)The cotton production offered certain spatial clustering effect, continuous stability and high value clusters were mainly distributed in south Xinjiang, while low value clusters were been depleted significantly;(3)Multiple linear regression results indicated that: the factors such as per capita area of cultivated land, total power of agricultural machinery, consumption of chemical fertilizer(100% purity), effective irrigated area, non farming vocations, per capita output of grain crops, the output ratio between cotton and wheat, areas covered by natural disaster, output of cotton per hectare, the reform of target price and temporary purchase and storage policy were the main driving factors which influenced the spatial temporal pattern changes of cotton production. According to the results, the countermeasures such as develop standardized and scale production, strengthen the application of entire mechanization, improve agricultural insurance and comprehensive subsidy were put forward for the optimization and structural adjustment of cotton production.
Key words:  cotton production  spatial temporal pattern  spatial auto correlation  multiple linear regression model  Xinjiang
版权所有:  您是本站第    位访问者
主管单位:中华人民共和国农业部 主办单位:中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所 地址:北京市中关村南大街12号
电话:010-82109647 82108697 电子邮件:quhuabjb@caas.cn
技术支持:北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备11039015号