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引用本文:孟俊杰,田建民,王静,杜涛,上官彩霞.基于Logistic模型的农户种植优质专用小麦影响因素分析[J].中国农业资源与区划,2018,39(10):11~16
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基于Logistic模型的农户种植优质专用小麦影响因素分析
孟俊杰, 田建民, 王静, 杜涛, 上官彩霞
河南省农业科学院农业经济与信息研究所,郑州450002
摘要:
[目的]探究农户种植优质专用强筋和弱筋小麦主要影响因素,为决策部门扩大优质专用小麦生产、进行小麦供给侧改革提供政策依据。[方法]文章运用农户调查问卷和Logistic模型,以农户是否种植优质专用小麦为因变量,用反映农户户主特征和家庭情况、农业生产条件、农业产业化组织情况、区域政策支持情况的10个变量为自变量,对农户种植优质专用小麦影响因素进行分析。[结果]是否与企业或者合作社签订协议、是否统一供种、所在地区是否享受价格补贴政策等自变量具有正向影响,达到1%显著水平。农户家庭劳动力个数、农户文化程度等自变量具有正向影响,达到5%显著水平,农户非农收入比例具有负向影响,达到10%显著水平。[结论]农户是否与企业或者合作社签订协议、是否统一供种、所在地区是否享受价格补贴政策是主要影响因素,因此,优化利益联结机制、扩大统一供种力度、加大价格补贴,是加快优质专用小麦发展的重点。
关键词:  优质专用小麦影响因素Logistic 模型农户调查问卷河南省
DOI:
分类号:F3211
基金项目:国家社会科学基金一般项目“粮食主产区农地流转模式比较和机制创新研究”(14BJY109); 2017年农业部产业政策与法规司政策调研课题“强筋弱筋小麦发展与小麦供给侧结构性改革路径研究”; 2017年河南省财政预算基础科研项目“河南省农业现代化水平测度与提升对策研究”(豫财预[2017]76-17)
ANALYSIS ON INFLUENCING FACTORS OF PLANTING HIGH QUALITY WHEAT FOR SPECIAL PURPOSES BASED ON LOGISTIC MODEL*——A CASE OF 8 COUNTIES IN HENAN
Meng Junjie, Tian Jianmin, Wang Jing, Du Tao, Shangguan Caixia
Agricultural Economics and Information Research Institute of HenanAcademy of Agriculture Sciences,Zhengzhou, Henan 450002, China
Abstract:
The paper aimed to find out the main factors that affected planting high quality strong gluten and weak gluten wheat for special purposes so as to provide policy basis for decision making departments to expand the high quality wheat production and to promote supply side reform.Farmers′ survey questionnaire and logistic model were employed to analyze influence factors, in which whether farmers chose to plant high quality special wheat was used as the dependent variable, and 10 variables that reflected main characteristics of householder and family situation, agricultural production condition, agricultural industrialization organization and regional policy support were taken as independent variables. The results showed that such independent variables as whether signing agreement with enterprises or cooperatives, whether supplying seeds together, and whether enjoying the price subsidy policy had positive effect, reaching a significant level of 1%. And number of family′s labor force, education level also had positive effects, reaching a significant level of 5%, while proportion of non agricultural income had negative impact, reaching a significant level of 10%. So such independent variables as whether signing agreement with enterprises or cooperatives, whether supplying seeds together, and whether enjoying the price subsidy policy were the main influencing factors. Therefore, optimizing the interest linkage mechanism,expanding supplying seeds supply and increasing price subsidy are the keys to accelerate the development of high quality wheat for special purposes.
Key words:  shigh quality wheat for special purposes  influencing factors  logistic model  farmers survey questionnaire  Henan province
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