| 摘要: |
| ［目的］研究气候变暖对新疆杏种植气候适宜性的影响，为科学制定新疆杏发展规划提供参考依据。［方法］基于新疆102个资料序列较长的气象站1961—2016年≥10℃积温、85%保证率极端最低气温、终霜冻日早于≥10℃初日的日数资料，采用线性倾向率、累积距平、t检验以及ArcGIS空间插值技术，在对近56年影响新疆杏生长发育的主要气候要素时空变化进行分析的基础上，结合杏种植的气候适宜性区划指标，对气候变暖背景下新疆杏种植气候适宜性的变化进行研究。［结果］新疆杏种植的气候最适宜区在塔里木盆地西南缘； 适宜区在塔里木盆地中西部、吐鲁番盆地腹地； 次适宜区在塔里木盆地中东部和吐哈盆地南部； 北疆大部、阿尔泰山、天山山区和昆仑山区为不适宜区。［结论］受气候变暖的影响， 1997年后较其之前，杏种植气候最适宜区、适宜区和次适宜区有不同程度扩大，不适宜区明显缩小。气候变暖对新疆杏种植总体趋于有利。 |
| 关键词: 气候变暖≥10℃积温冬季极端最低气温霜冻杏气候适宜性新疆 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:P49 |
| 基金项目:中国气象局旱区特色农业气象灾害监测预警与风险管理重点实验室开放研究项目“酿酒葡萄成熟采收期连阴雨灾害风险评估与区划”（CAMF 201704）；“新疆气象科学技术研究与应用技术开发项目”（ZD201702）； 新疆气象局科学技术研究与应用技术开发项目“基于GIS的喀什地区新梅种植气候适宜性区划及方法”（MS201911） |
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| IMPACT OF CLIMATE WARMING ON APRICOT PLANTING CLIMATIC SUITABILITY IN XINJIANG |
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Zhang Shanqing1, Ji Chunrong1, Pu Zongchao2※
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1. Xinjiang Agro meteorological Observatory（Information Centre of Xinjiang Xingnong Net），Urumqi, Xinjiang 830002, China;2. Urumqi Meteorological Bureau of Xinjiang, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830002, China
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| Abstract: |
| This research aims to study the influence of climate warming on climate suitability of apricot cultivation, so as to provide reference for scientific development planning of apricot in Xinjiang. Based on the data of daily mean temperature and minimum temperature from 102 meteorological stations in Xinjiang during 1961 2016, the fundamental spatial temporal change characteristic of key climatic factors affecting Apricot planting, such as ≥10℃ accumulated temperature(∑Tmen≥10℃), minimum temperature in winter (Tmin) and the days which was the last frost date earlier than the first date of daily mean temperature ≥10℃(DFTmen≥10℃ LF), were analyzed by using the statistical methods of linear regression, accumulative anomaly, T test and mixed spatial interpolation technology based on ArcGIS. The effect of above climatic factors change on Apricot planting climatic suitability, and the distributed areas of most suitable, suitable, sub suitable and unsuitable to Apricot planting were studied by combining with the climatic suitability zoning index of Apricot planting. Under the comprehensive influence of above climatic factors, the most suitable areas for Apricot planting were in the plain of Tarim basin southwestern margin, suitable areas were mainly in the midwest of the Tarim basin and Turpan basin hinterland, sub suitable areas were in middle east Tarim basin and the south of Tuha basin, most of the northern Xinjiang and Altai mountain, Tianshan mountain, Kunlun mountain were not suitable for Apricot planting. Affected by global warming, after 1997, the most suitable areas, suitable areas and sub suitable areas for Apricot planting increased in varying degrees, while the unsuitable areas decreased significantly. The climate warming tends to be beneficial to apricot planting in Xinjiang. |
| Key words: climate warming accumulated temperature of ≥10℃ minimum temperature in winter temperature Days of last frost date earlier than the first date of daily mean temperature≥10℃ apricot climatic suitability Xinjiang region |
