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引用本文:彭继权,吴海涛,程威特,江帆.机械化水平对农户种植结构的影响研究*——基于IVGMM和IVTobit的估计方法[J].中国农业资源与区划,2020,41(1):55~65
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机械化水平对农户种植结构的影响研究*——基于IVGMM和IVTobit的估计方法
彭继权1,吴海涛2※,程威特2,江帆3
1.江西财经大学经济学院,南昌330013; 2.中南财经政法大学工商管理学院,湖北武汉430073; 3.湖北省农业科学院农业经济技术研究所,武汉430064
摘要:
[目的]农业种植结构是农业供给侧结构性改革的关键所在,农业供给侧结构性改革又是乡村振兴战略的必由之路。采用农户实地调查数据,分析机械化水平对农户种植总面积、粮食作物种植面积、经济作物种植面积、粮食作物种植面积比例的影响,以期为农业种植结构调整提供科学参考。[方法]为解决传统回归方法中内生性和样本选择偏误问题,运用工具变量法和样本选择修正法探究机械化水平对农户种植结构的实际影响。[结果]机械化水平对农户种植结构有显著的正向影响,机械化水平每提升1%,农户种植总面积增加0428%,粮食作物种植面积增加0435%,经济作物种植面积就增加0111%,粮食作物种植面积比例增加1104%。[结论]机械化水平对农户种植面积有稳健的正向效应,特别是对农户粮食作物种植面积的正向效应更大。与样本修正后工具变量估计相比,普通最小二乘估计会严重低估机械化水平对种植结构的影响。
关键词:  机械化水平农户种植结构IVGMM模型IVTobit模型
DOI:
分类号:F3261
基金项目:国家自然科学基金面上项目“城镇化路径选择对农村贫困影响的效应与机制”(71573277); 江西省教育厅科技项目“赣南革命老区农户相对贫困的动态识别及防贫机制研究”(GJJ190282); 南昌市社会科学“十三五”规划项目“南昌市精准扶贫成效评估研究”(YJ201906)
STUDY ON THE EFFECT OF MECHANIZATION ON FARMER′S PLANTING STRUCTURE*——ESTIMATION METHOD BASED ON IVGMM AND IVTOBIT
Peng Jiquan1, Wu Haitao2※, Cheng Weite2, Jiang Fan3
1. School of Economics, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang, Jiangxi 330013, China; 2. School of Business Administration, Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, Wuhan, Hubei 430073, China; 3. Institute of Agricultural Economics and Technology, Hubei Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Wuhan, Hubei 430064, China
Abstract:
The structural reform of the agricultural supply front is the necessary path to realize the strategy of rural vitalization, while determining the structure of agricultural planting is the key procedure within that structural reform. This study aims at analyzing the impact of the level of mechanization on the total area planted by farmers, the area planted with grain crops, the area planted with cash crops, and the proportion of the area planted with grain crops, so to provide scientific references for the adjustment of agricultural planting structure. The data in this study was collected by field survey. In order to solve the problems of endogeneity and sample selection errors that may exist in the model, instrumental variable method and sample selection correction method were used to explore the actual impact of mechanization level on the farmers′ planting structure. It was found that the level of mechanization had a significant positive impact on the planting structure of farmers. For each 1% increase in mechanization level, the total area planted by farmers, the area planted with grain crops, the area planted with cash crops, and the proportion of area planted with grain crops would increase by 0.428%, 0.435%, 0.111%, 1.104%, respectively. The level of mechanization has stable positive effects on the area planted by farmers, especially on the area planted with grain crops. Moreover, the instrumental variable estimating method after a sample modification used in this study can amend the severe underestimation of the impact of mechanization level on agricultural planting structure by ordinary least squares estimates.
Key words:  Mechanization level  Farmers  Planting structure  IVGMM model  IVTobit model
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