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引用本文:张琳,冯开文,黄嘉鑫.基于VAR模型的农地流转制度变迁的绩效分析*——以山东枣庄为例[J].中国农业资源与区划,2020,41(2):178~186
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基于VAR模型的农地流转制度变迁的绩效分析*——以山东枣庄为例
张琳1, 2冯开文2※黄嘉鑫1
1.枣庄学院经管学院,山东枣庄277100; 2.中国农业大学经管学院,北京100083
摘要:
[目的]农地流转制度发展至今近40年,其制度绩效一直是发展经济学界长期关注的问题,但是目前国内学界对农地制度变迁绩效的研究多集中于农地产权制度变迁,鲜有针对农地流转制度变迁绩效的分析。[方法]文章根据农民的非农就业与农地流转的相关性,采用农民的非农收入与家庭收入占比数据作为农地流转制度变迁的制度指标,并对该指标与农业产值之间的关系进行VAR检验。[结果]据脉冲响应分析,在农地流转制度产生初期就会对农业产值产生正向冲击,其影响路径呈现出先是逐渐上升而后缓慢下降的一个倒“U”形的发展态势; 随后采用方差分解的方式发现农地流转制度对农业产值的影响作用滞后于农地流转制度发生的时间,但是正向作用持续的时间较长。[结论]该研究认为在未来一段时间内,应该进一步完善农地流转制度环境,坚持农地流转制度的推进。
关键词:  农地流转制度变迁制度绩效VAR模型正向作用
DOI:
分类号:F3271
基金项目:枣庄市社科联应用研究课题(LX2018023)
PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS OF FARMLAND TRANSFER INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE BASED ON VAR MODEL*——A CASE STUDY OF ZAOZHUANG CITY IN SHANDONG PROVINCE
Zhang Lin1,2, Feng Kaiwen2※, Huang Jiaxin1
1. College of Economics and Management, Zaochuang University, Zaochuang, Shandong 277100,China;2. College of Economics and Management, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China
Abstract:
Farmland transfer institution has been developed for nearly 40 years, and its institutional performance has been a long term concern in the field of development economics. However, the current research on the performance of farmland transfer institution in the domestic academic community is mostly focused on the change of the farmland property system, and there is little analysis of the conversion performance of farmland transfer institution. On the basis of previous studies and according to the practice of agricultural land transfer, this paper constructed the institution index of the institution change of farmland transfer, and made a VAR test on the relationship between the index and agricultural output value. It was found that there was a significant correlation between the impulse response and variance decomposition. The farmland transfer institution had a positive impact on the agricultural output value, although the institutional action time was lagging, but the duration was longer. In summary, this research suggested that we should respond to the spirit of the 19th National Congress, further improve the institution environment, adhere to the promotion of farmland transfer institution in the future.
Key words:  farmland transfer  institutional change  institutional performance  VAR model  positive effect
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