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引用本文:冯慧翎,罗璐曦,陈文宽,陈科成.基于GM模型的四川省畜产品供给预测分析[J].中国农业资源与区划,2020,41(2):267~274
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基于GM模型的四川省畜产品供给预测分析
冯慧翎, 罗璐曦, 陈文宽, 陈科成
四川农业大学管理学院,成都611130
摘要:
[目的]分析和预测四川省畜产品的供给现状及预测,有利于保障农产品有效供给,加快推进农业农村经济发展,促使四川由农业大省向农业强省转变。[方法]文章首先对国内外相关研究进行了梳理,然后在分析2007—2016年四川省畜产品现状基础上,总结目前存在的问题,利用灰色系统理论,采用GM(1, 1)模型对未来10年四川省的畜产品供给进行预测。[结果]结果显示该模型的预测精度较高,结果可信。四川省未来10年的畜产品产量总体呈逐年增长态势,但增长速度较缓慢,而且各市区的畜产品产量存在区域差异,肉类总产、猪肉以及禽肉产量都呈上涨趋势,仅有较少市区的牛、羊、兔等草食性动物的产量有所下降。[结论]未来应该从保障产品供给、转变消费观念以及增加科技投入等方面着手,为畜牧业的发展提供方向性借鉴指导,推动畜牧产业结构转型升级,从而稳步推进农业供给侧结构性改革。
关键词:  畜产品供给供给侧改革灰色预测四川省
DOI:
分类号:S89
基金项目:四川省社会科学规划重大项目“四川农业产业转型升级战略研究”(SC14ZD09); 四川省哲学社会科学重点研究基地四川省农村发展研究中心重点项目“农业机械化、产业结构和农村劳动力转移”(CR1603); 四川省科技支撑项目“农田有机质提升关键技术应用与推广”(13ZC2570)
BASED ON THE GM MODEL ANIMAL PRODUCTS SUPPLY FORECAST ANALYSIS OF SICHUAN PROVINCE
Feng Huiling, Luo Luxi, Chen Wenkuang, Chen Kecheng
College of Management,Sichuan Agricultural University,Chengdu, Sichuan 611130,China
Abstract:
Analyzing and forecasting the present situation and forecast of livestock products supply in Sichuan province will help to ensure the effective supply of agricultural products, accelerate the development of agriculture and rural areas, and promote the transformation of Sichuan from a large agricultural province to a strong agricultural province. Firstly, the domestic and foreign related research was sorted out, and then on the basis of analyzing the current situation of livestock products in Sichuan province in the past 10 years from 2007 to 2016, the existing problems were summarized. Then, GM (1,1) model was used to predict the supply of livestock products in Sichuan province in the next 10 years. The results showed that the prediction accuracy of the model was high and the result was believable. The output of livestock products in Sichuan province would increase year by year in the next 10 years, but the growth rate was relatively slow, and there were regional differences in the output of livestock products in each urban area. The total production of meat, pork and poultry meat were on the rise, only the output of cattle, sheep, rabbits and other herbivorous animals in fewer urban areas had declined. In the future, we should start from ensuring the supply of products, changing the concept of consumption and increasing investment in science and technology to provide directional guidance for the development of animal husbandry, promote the transformation and upgrading of animal husbandry industrial structure, so as to steadily promote the structural reform of agricultural supply side.
Key words:  animal products  supply  supply side reform  grey prediction  Sichuan province
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