| 摘要: |
| ［目的］为进一步科学、系统地评估长江中下游地区主要农产品隐含的虚拟耕地资源对农业经济增长的约束或促进作用，进而为国家正确制定和执行合理的土地管理政策提供参考依据。［方法］基于新古典经济增长理论构建农业经济增长中隐含的虚拟耕地资源“尾效”模型，以长江中下游地区7省、市为例进行实证对比分析，并尝试探索虚拟耕地资源“尾效”存在区域差异的原因。［结果］长江中下游地区主要农产品虚拟耕地资源与农业经济增长存在显著相关，虚拟耕地资源的投入进一步加速了浙江、上海和江苏的经济发展，对安徽、湖南、湖北、江西经济发展的促进和约束程度变化不一； 虚拟耕地资源增长率、虚拟耕地资源弹性系数、资本弹性系数是虚拟耕地资源“尾效”存在区域差异的主要原因。［结论］长江中下游地区主要农产品虚拟耕地资源“尾效”整体差异明显，对农业经济增长的影响显著。 |
| 关键词: 农业经济增长虚拟耕地资源尾效长江中下游地区新古典经济增长理论 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:F323 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目“连片特困地区少数民族农户贫困代际传递程度及传递机制研究—以新疆为例” （71763027）“新疆连片特困地区多维贫困测度及其影响因素研究”（批准号： 71640033）； 新疆软科学项目“丝绸之路经济带背景下新疆对中亚地区文化贸易对策研究”（201542110） |
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| A COMPARATIVE STUDY ON THE "TAIL EFFECT" OF THE VIRTUAL CULTIVATED LAND RESOURCES IN AGRICULTURAL ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE MIDDLE AND LOWER REACHES OF THE YANGTZE RIVER |
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Cao Chong1，Chen Jian2，Ding Chenchen1，Xia Yong1※
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1.College of Economics and Trade, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830000，China; 2. College of Economics and Management, Tongren University, Tongren, Guizhou 554300, China
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| Abstract: |
| The purpose of this research is to further scientifically and systematically evaluate the restraint or promotion effect of the virtual cultivated land resources implied by the main agricultural products in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River on the agricultural economic growth, so as to provide reference for the country to correctly formulate and implement reasonable land management policies. Based on the neoclassical economic growth theory, this research constructed the "tail effect" model of virtual cultivated land resources implied in agricultural economic growth. Taking seven provinces and cities in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River as an example, it made an empirical comparative analysis and tried to explore the reasons for the regional differences in the "tail effect" of virtual cultivated land resources. There was a significant correlation between the virtual cultivated land resources of main agricultural products and agricultural economic growth in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The input of virtual cultivated land resources further accelerated the economic development of Zhejiang, Shanghai and Jiangsu, and had different degrees of promotion and restriction on the economic development of Anhui, Hunan, Hubei and Jiangxi. The main reasons for the regional differences in the "tail effect" of virtual cultivated land resources were the growth rate of virtual cultivated land resources, the elasticity coefficient of virtual cultivated land resources and the elasticity coefficient of capital. The "tail effect" of virtual cultivated land resources of main agricultural products in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is significantly different, which has a significant impact on agricultural economic growth. |
| Key words: agricultural economic growth virtual cultivated land resources tail effect middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River neoclassical economic growth theory |
