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引用本文:沈璐.江苏省创意农业资源利用水平的综合评价及发展趋势灰色预测[J].中国农业资源与区划,2020,41(5):286~293
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江苏省创意农业资源利用水平的综合评价及发展趋势灰色预测
沈璐
作者单位
沈璐 三江学院文化产业与旅游管理学院,江苏南京210012 
摘要:
[目的]随着农产品需求结构的多元化,创意农业成为新经济发展下的新型产业,研究创意农业资源利用水平和发展趋势,更好地促进农村经济发展和农民增收。[方法]文章以创意农业发展为背景,采用层次分析法对江苏省创意农业资源利用水平进行测度,利用自适应灰色预测模型对江苏省创意农业发展趋势进行灰色预测。[结果]权重分析结果表明农村居民人均纯收入权重值最高为0110,表明在创意农业资源利用评价中,农村居民人均纯收入最为重要。综合评分结果表明农村居民人均纯收入得分最高为0429分,该结果说明创意农业较大地促进了农村居民人均收入水平的增长。江苏省创意农业资源利用水平综合得分为3927分,处于较高利用水平,但产业发展不平衡,经济、文化、产业发展水平相对于旅游发展水平较低。灰色预测结果表明未来5年内江苏省创意农业发展方向以农业观光园和民俗旅游形式为主,设施农业发展仍处于弱势。[结论]整体上看,江苏省创意农业资源利用处于较高水平,但发展不均衡。从发展模式和发展方向看,江苏省创意农业将以农业观光园和民俗旅游的形式优先发展。因此,在保证观光休闲农业和乡村旅游业稳定发展的基础上,加快设施农业的发展速度,以保证江苏省创意农业全面、平衡地发展。
关键词:  灰色预测模型创意农业资源利用层次分析法发展趋势
DOI:
分类号:F327; F5927
基金项目:三江学院校级科研项目“全域旅游背景下乡村旅游品牌建设研究——以南京溧水区为例”(2018SJKY036)
COMPREHENSIVE EVALUATION OF THE UTILIZATION LEVEL OF CREATIVE AGRICULTURAL RESOURCES IN JIANGSU PROVINCE AND GREY FORECASTING OF ITS DEVELOPMENT TREND
Shen Lu
Abstract:
With the diversification of the demand structure of agricultural products, creative agriculture has become a new industry under the development of new economy. The research on the utilization level and development trend of creative agricultural resources can better promote the development of rural economy and increase the income of farmers. Based on the development of creative agriculture, the AHP were used to measure the utilization level of creative agriculture resources in Jiangsu province, and the adaptive grey forecasting model was used to predict the development trend of creative agriculture in Jiangsu province. The results of weight analysis showed that the weight of per capita net income of rural residents was the highest 0.110, which indicated that the per capita net income of rural residents was the most important in the evaluation of the utilization of creative agricultural resources. The results showed that the average net income of rural residents was the highest 0.429, which indicated that creative agriculture promoted the increase of per capita income of rural residents. The comprehensive score of creative agriculture resources utilization level in Jiangsu province was 3.927, which was in a high utilization level, but the development level of industry was unbalanced, economy, culture and industry development level was lower than that of tourism development level. The grey forecasting results showed that Jiangsu would be in the next five years the development direction of provincial creative agriculture was mainly agricultural sightseeing garden and folk tourism, while the development of facility agriculture was still in a weak position. On the whole, creative agricultural resources utilization in Jiangsu province is at a high level, but the development is not balanced. From the perspective of development mode and direction, creative agriculture in Jiangsu province will be given priority in the form of agricultural sightseeing garden and folk tourism. Therefore, on the basis of ensuring the steady development of sightseeing and leisure agriculture and rural tourism, we should speed up the development of facility agriculture in order to ensure the comprehensive and balanced development of creative agriculture in Jiangsu province.
Key words:  gray forecasting model  creative agriculture  resource utilization  AHP  development trend
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