| 摘要: |
| ［目的］探索叶尔羌河平原绿洲土地生态安全预警问题及其时空格局变化，旨在为叶尔羌河平原绿洲土地生态安全及可持续利用提供科学的参考依据。［方法］文章运用PSR模型构建预警指标体系，采用熵值法测算各指标权重，对2000—2016年叶尔羌河平原绿洲土地生态安全警情格局进行综合分析，并利用GIS技术分析其2000年、2005年、2010年和2016年土地生态安全空间格局变化，最后运用障碍度模型探索其障碍因子。［结果］（1）2000—2016年叶尔羌河平原绿洲土地生态安全综合预警指数总体呈上升态势，生态预警状态由“较不安全”转为“临界安全”，警度亦由“重警”变为“中警”。（2）从空间格局来看，空间上各县域土地生态安全水平差异明显，研究初期西部地区土地生态安全状态优于东部地区， 2016年呈现出中部高、东北—西南部低的态势。（3）近17年叶尔羌河平原绿洲各县域土地生态环境状况有所改善，安全状态经历了“极不安全—临界安全—较安全”的发展历程。（4）影响土地生态安全的主要障碍因子包括单位面积耕地农药负荷、人口密度、单位面积耕地化肥负荷、土地垦殖率、人口自然增长率和单位面积耕地地膜负荷等。［结论］研究期间叶尔羌河平原绿洲土地生态安全得到明显的提升与改善，并在良好的方向发展。 |
| 关键词: 土地生态安全预警PSR模型熵值法时空格局叶尔羌河平原绿洲 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:X826； F3012 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目“基于生态系统服务的绿洲生态安全预警及调控研究”（41661100）； 新疆师范大学研究生科研创新基金资助项目（XSY201902008） |
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| ANALYSIS ON THE EVOLVEMENT AND SPATIO TEMPORAL PATTERN OF LAND ECOLOGICAL SECURITY EARLY WARNING IN YARKANT RIVER PLAIN OASIS |
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Malika Amat, Mansur Shabiti, Zhang Xueqi
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College of Geographical Science and Tourism, Xinjiang Normal University, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830054, China
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| Abstract: |
| In order to provide scientific reference for land ecological security and sustainable utilization of oasis in Yarkant River Plain, this paper explores the early warning problem of land ecological security and the change of temporal and spatial pattern of land ecological security in Yarkant River Plain. The PSR model was used to build early warning index system, the entropy method was used to calculate each index weight, and a comprehensive analysis on the land ecological security warning pattern of Yerqiang River plain oasis from 2000 to 2016 was made. Then the GIS technology was adapted to analyze the spatial pattern changes of land ecological security in 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2016, and finally the obstacle factors were explored by using the obstacle degree model.The results were indicated as follows. ①From 2000 to 2016, the overall ecological security comprehensive warning index of oasis land in Yarkant River Plain was on the rise. The ecological warning state changed from "less safe" to "critical safety", and the alarm degree changed from "heavy warning" to "medium warning". ②From the perspective of spatial pattern, the level of land ecological security in each county was obviously different. At the beginning of the study, the state of land ecological security in the western region was better than that in the eastern region.③In the past 17 years, the ecological environment of the land in the oasis of the Yarkant River plain had been improved, and the security state had experienced the development process of "extremely unsafe critical security relatively safe".④The main obstacles to land ecological security included pesticide load per unit area, population density, fertilizer load per unit area, land reclamation rate, natural population growth rate and film load per unit area, etc. During the study period, the land ecological security of the oasis in the Yarkant River Plain is obviously improved and develops in a good direction. |
| Key words: land ecological security early warning PSR model entropy method space time pattern Yarkant River plain oasis |
