| 摘要: |
| ［目的］以重庆市綦江区为研究对象，通过模拟预测2010—2020年规划调控影响下研究区的土地利用空间格局变化特征，以期为目标情景下土地利用规划的空间实施提供技术支持。［方法］文章通过构建Dyna CLUE模型分别模拟研究区在自然增长和规划约束引导下的土地利用空间格局，并对照自然情景进而分析规划约束下土地利用空间格局的表现特征。［结果］比较AutoLogistic模型与传统Logistic模型回归结果发现，除建设用地外，其他地类的ROC值都有显著提升； 对比两种情景模拟结果发现，到2020年，研究区内耕地、农村居民点、未利用地较自然情景显著减少，林地、园地显著增加，城镇建设用地增长规模较自然增长情景减少17186hm2； 规划情景约束下，2010—2015年研究区地类转移以耕地转建设用地为主，2015—2020年以耕地转林地为主，耕地转建设用地次之，再次为农村居民点转耕地。［结论］Dyna CLUE模型模拟中，运用添加自相关因子的AutoLogistic模型代替传统Logistic模型进行空间驱动力分析，能够显著提升模型模拟精度； 规划约束下，退耕还林、农村居民点复垦和农业结构调整等工作的开展是耕地减少、林园地显著增加，建设用地规模得以控制的重要原因； 退耕还林成果在规划约束情景中得到较好体现，表明规划目标对于引导土地利用空间格局定向变化有重要作用，但是丘陵山地的耕地减少态势也需得到足够重视，建议推进耕地产能建设从而协调生态保护与粮食安全间的用地需求。 |
| 关键词: 生态保护土地利用规划情景模拟 Dyna CLUE模型空间格局 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:F30123 |
| 基金项目:国家科技支撑计划课题“乡村土地流转与资源整合关键技术与示范”（2013BAJ11B02） |
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| SIMULATION OF LAND USE SPATIAL PATTERN IN THE HILLY AND MOUNTAINOUS AREA UNDER THE CONSTRAINTS OF PLANNING SCENARIOS*——TAKING QIJIANG DISTRICT OF CHONGQING MUNICIPALITY AS AN EXAMPLE |
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Su Min, Wei Chaofu, Zhang Guodong, Liu Weiping
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College of Resources and Environment, Southwest University，Chongqing 400715，China
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| Abstract: |
| The Qijiang District of Chongqing city is taken as the research object, the spatial pattern change characteristics of land use in the research area under the influence of planning regulation from 2010 to 2020 are predicted through the simulation, so that the technical support is provided for the spatial implementation of land use planning under the target scenario. In the paper, the Dyna CLUE model was constructed to simulate respectively the spatial pattern of land use in the study area under the guide of the natural growth and planning constraints, and then the performance characteristics of the spatial pattern of land use under the planning constraints were analyzed by comparing with the natural scenarios. It was found that by comparing the regression results of the AutoLogistic model and traditional Logistic model that the ROC values of other land types were significantly increased except for the construction land; it had been found by comparing the simulation results of the two scenarios that the cultivated land, rural residential area and unused land in the study area were significantly reduced by compared with the natural scenario by 2020, the wood land and garden land were significantly increased, and the growth scale of urban construction land was reduced by 171.86 hm2 by compared with the natural growth scenario; under the constraint of planning scenario, the transfer of land types in the research area from 2010 to 2015 was dominated by the transfer of farmland to the construction land, the transfer from 2015 to 2020 was dominated by the transfer of farmland to the forest land, followed by the transfer of farmland to the construction land, and then the transfer of rural residential areas to the farmland. In the simulation of Dyna CLUE model, the AutoLogistic model with an autocorrelation factor is used to replace the traditional Logistic model for the spatial driving force analysis, and then the simulation accuracy of the model could be significantly improved; under the restriction of planning, the development of work such as the returning farmland to forest, reclaiming the rural residential areas, adjusting the agricultural structure and so on is the important reason for the decrease of cultivated land, the significant increase of the forest and garden land, and the control of construction land scale. The achievements of returning the farmland to the forest are better reflected in the planning constraint scenario, it has been indicated that the planning target play an important role in guiding the directional change of land use spatial pattern, however, the sufficient attention should also be paid to the reduction situation of cultivated land in the hilly and mountainous areas, it is recommended to promote the construction of cultivated land productivity, so that the land demand between the ecological protection and food security is coordinated. |
| Key words: ecological protection land use planning scenario simulation Dyna CLUE model spatial pattern |
