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引用本文:黄炎忠,罗小锋,张俊飚.农户生产行为调整及影响因素分析*——基于547个食用菌种植户的调查[J].中国农业资源与区划,2020,41(12):51~56
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农户生产行为调整及影响因素分析*——基于547个食用菌种植户的调查
黄炎忠1,2, 罗小锋1,2, 张俊飚1,2
1.华中农业大学经济管理学院,湖北武汉430070;2.湖北农村发展研究中心,武汉430070
摘要:
[目的]农户的生产规模调整行为决策对于农业生产供给、区位调整的影响至关重要,是把握我国农业生产区位集聚形成的重要途径。[方法]运用547个食用菌种植户样本数据,基于适应性预期理论模型,探讨了市场价格预期与生产调控能力对农户生产规模调整行为的影响。[结果](1)农户的生产规模并不稳定,4317%的样本农户都对食用菌生产规模做出调整决策。农户当期生产规模会在前期生产规模的基础上,根据前期市场价格做出适当的调整。而不稳定的市场价格仍然是目前农户生产过程中最担忧的问题。(2)农户生产规模调整行为决策受市场价格预期与生产调控能力的共同影响。较高的前期市场价格、充裕的家庭劳动力、生产技术培训以及户主年龄较小等因素都有利于农户扩大食用菌生产规模。生产成本和户主年龄的增加则会促进农户做出缩小生产规模的决策。[结论]要构建透明的市场价格信息制度,传递市场供需信息,稳定农户的市场预期,防止农户频繁且盲目调整经营规模。同时也要定期开展技术培训,积极探索轻简化生产模式,降低农户生产调整过程中的技术与劳动力约束。
关键词:  食用菌生产规模生产调整市场预期行为决策
DOI:
分类号:F3231
基金项目:国家社会科学基金重点项目“基于经济高质量发展的农业自然资源高效利用研究”(20AZD091)
ANALYSIS ON FARMERS′ PRODUCTION ADJUSTMENT BEHAVIOR AND INFLUENCING FACTORS*——SURVEY OF 547 MUSHROOM GROWERS
Huang Yanzhong1,2, Luo Xiaofeng1,2, Zhang Junbiao1,2
1.College of Economics & Management, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, Hubei, China;2.Hubei Rural Development Research Center, Wuhan 430070, Hubei, China
Abstract:
It is very important to explore the effect of farmers′ production scale adjustment behavior on agricultural production supply and location adjustment, which is an important way to grasp the formation of regional agglomeration of agricultural production in China. Base on the questionnaire survey of 547 mushroom growers, we used the model of adaptive expectation theory to discuss the effects of market price expectation and production regulation ability on farmers′ production scale adjustment behavior. The results were indicated as follows. The scale of production of mushroom growers was not stable, 43.17% of the sample farmers had adjusted the scale of production of edible fungi. On the basis of the previous production scale, farmers would make appropriate adjustments according to the previous market price. The unstable market price was still the most worrying problem in farmers′ production process. The decision making of farmers′ production scale adjustment behavior was affected by market price expectation and production regulation ability. Higher pre market prices, more household labor, technology training and younger household were all conducive to expanding the scale of production. The increase of production cost and older household led farmers to reduce production scale. Therefore, we should build a transparent market price information system, transfer market supply and demand information, and stabilize farmers′ market expectations. It is necessary to avoid the interference of market instability factors and prevent farmers from adjusting their production scale frequently and blindly. In addition, technical training should be carried out regularly, and ways to simplify production should be actively explored to reduce the constraints of technology and labor in the process of farmers′ production adjustment.
Key words:  edible fungi  production scale  production adjustment  market expectations  behavioral decision
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