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天然草原综合风险评估与区划研究——基基于多重风险相互作用的视角
郭新雅1,赵元凤1,弓宇飞1,Muhammad Umer Arshad2
1.内蒙古农业大学经济管理学院,呼和浩特 010018;2.内蒙古大学鸿德文理学院,呼和浩特 010000
摘要:
目的 在建立健全草原风险管理体系,保障草原生态安全和稳定草原畜牧业生产的背景下,草原保险的作用更加凸显。草原风险评估和区划作为草原保险设计的前提和基础,其准确性直接决定着草原保险条款的合理性及科学性。方法 文章利用半定量化因果关系矩阵法、HP滤波模型、多种聚类分析法和单因素方差分析法。结果 可将锡林郭勒草原分为低、中、高和极高4个风险区,各风险区间的差异显著,其中,低风险区呈现出致灾因子危险性低、承灾体脆弱性低和防灾减灾能力强的显著特点;中风险区呈现出承灾体暴露性水平高,但致灾因子危险性处于中等水平的显著特点;高风险区呈现出致灾因子危险性高,防灾减灾能力处于中等水平的典型特征;极高风险区呈现出承灾体脆弱性水平高,防灾减灾能力弱的典型特征。结论 在厘定草原保险费率时,应考虑多种风险间的交互作用,构建合理的草原风险区划图。
关键词:  天然草原  草原风险  风险评估  风险区划  锡林郭勒草原
DOI:10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.20230714
分类号:F301.2
基金项目:内蒙古自治区科技计划项目“内蒙古农牧业干旱灾害风险评估与精细化保险费率厘定研究”(201802108);国家自然科学基金项目“畜牧天气指数保险:牧户需求、收入效应和行为影响——基于牛羊天气指数保险的准自然实验”(71863028);国家自然科学基金项目“畜牧业‘保险+信贷’对养殖户信贷可得性、生产决策行为及收入的影响”(72173069)
GRASSLAND COMPREHENSIVE RISK ASSESSMENT AND RISK ZONING——A PERSPECTIVE BASED ON MULTIPLE RISK INTERACTIONS
Guo Xinya1, Zhao Yuanfeng1, Gong Yufei1, Muhammad Umer Arshad2
1.College of Economics and Management, Inner Mongolia Agriculture University, Hohhot 010018, Inner Mongolia, China;2.Inner Mongolia Honder College of Arts and Sciences, Hohhot 010000, Inner Mongolia, China
Abstract:
This research is intended to establish a risk management system, so as to ensure grassland ecological security and stabilize animal husbandry production. Grassland insurance is an effective tool, grassland risk assessment and risk zoning are the foundation for grassland insurance design, which determines the rationality and scientificity of grassland insurance. In this study, we used the quantitative relationship approach by adopting the semi-quantitative causality matrix method, HP filter model, multiple cluster analysis methods and one-way analysis of variance, to construct a comprehensive index system and measure the degree of risk of different 13 elements in Xilingol Grassland. Based on the empirical result, Xilingol Grassland can be divided into 4 (low, medium, high, and extremely high) risk areas. indicated a significant difference among the different risk areas. The low-risk area showed a low disaster-causing risk. Notably, the low-risk area had a strong ability for disaster prevention and mitigation. The medium risk area presented a high level of exposure of the hazard-bearing body, but the factor was at the medium level. The high-risk area represented a high hazard risk, and the capability of disaster prevention and mitigation was typical with a high characteristic which showing typical characteristics of the high vulnerability of disaster-bearing bodies and weak disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities. Based on the empirical analysis, it is concluded that a variety of grassland risk areas should be considered in the construction of grassland risk areas according to their risk level which is necessary for the rating of grassland insurance.
Key words:  grassland  grassland risk  risk assessment  risk zoning  Xilingol grassland