| 摘要: |
| ［目的］以淮河流域为研究对象，揭示我国南北气候过渡带典型地区不同特征气温的变化规律。［方法］基于1960~2015年间的观测数据，综合线性回归、距平、小波和重标极差分形等时间序列分析方法，探讨淮河流域气温变化的过程、趋势与周期特征。［结果］（1）年平均气温、春、秋、冬季气温总体都呈上升趋势，但夏季气温无明显变化趋势，且20世纪90年代中期以后不同气温都存在明显的升高趋势。（2）年平均最高气温和年平均最低气温都呈波动上升趋势，但最低气温上升幅度大于最高气温，而气温年较差为波动减小趋势。（3）年气温、春秋冬季气温存在较显著的2年、3~5年左右短周期，而夏季气温无明显周期规律。（4）未来气温变化趋势上，年气温、年平均最高气温、年平均最低气温、不同季节气温仍将呈升高趋势，而气温年较差仍继续呈减小趋势。［结论］1960年以来淮河流域不同特征气温总体呈升高趋势，显示了气候变暖的区域影响效应，但气候变暖对气温偏低季节的影响更偏大，且未来流域气温仍将持续升高。 |
| 关键词: 气温 变化趋势 周期 淮河流域 南北气候过渡带 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:S162 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金面上项目“南北气候分界线变动视角的淮河流域旱涝格局演变及机制”（41471425）；江苏省教育厅高校哲学社会科学研究项目“洪泽湖生态经济区气象灾害风险的公众认知与评估管理研究”（2016SJB630122）；淮安市科技局重点研发计划项目“基于WebGIS的淮安市多灾害监测预警与应急技术集成应用研究”（HAS2015005） |
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| TEMPORAL CHANGE OF AIR TEMPERATURE IN A TYPICAL NORTH-SOUTH TRANSITIONAL CLIMATIC ZONE——A CASE STUDY IN HUAIHE RIVER BASIN |
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Ye Zhengwei1,2, Ji Xu3, Liu Yuxiu4
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1.School of Urban and Environmental Science, Huaiyin Normal University, Huaian, Jiangsu 223300, China;2.Huaihe eco-economic Belt Research Institute, Huaian, Jiangsu 223300, China;3.College of Tourism and Environment, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an 710119;4.College of Geographical Science, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350007, China
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| Abstract: |
| Air temperature is analyzed to get an insight into the temporal change of air temperature in Huaihe River Basin (HRB). Based on the observed data from meteorological stations and the multi-temporal analysis methods including linear regression, anomalies analysis, wavelet and Rescaled Range Analysis, this paper analyzed the change trend and the period features of air temperature in HRB in 1960~2015. The results showed that (1) rising trend can be found in annual temperature, spring temperature, autumn temperature and winter temperature, but there was almost no change trend in summer temperature. A larger change range appeared since 1990s in spring temperature, autumn temperature and winter temperature. (2) Annual maximum temperature and minimum temperature showed an increasing trend, but the change range of annual maximum temperature was larger than that of the minimum temperature. (3) A period at about 2 years and 3~5 years can be checked for annual temperature, spring temperature, autumn temperature and winter temperature, but there was no significant period in summer temperature. (4) As for the long range change, a continuous change trend lasted in the near future for annual temperature, seasonal temperature, maximum temperature and minimum temperature. Since 1960, rising trend of different air temperature indicated a regional response to the global warming, however, change range of air temperature was larger in the seasons with relatively low air temperature, and air temperature will continue to increase in the near future. |
| Key words: air temperature change trend period Huaihe River Basin North-South transitional climate zone |
