| 摘要: |
| 该文以2035年作为典型年份，研究根据耕地、复种、粮作比例、播面单产、人均消费需求等不同 条件组合，讨论不同情景下中国分县的粮食产量和人口承载力，向国家层面汇总，对2035年中国人粮关系 的未来前景进行系统分析，探讨不同情景下中国人口-土地-粮食的互动关系，为中国人粮关系协调发展 提供决策依据。研究结果表明:在不同耕地、复种指数、粮作比例和播面单产组合下，我国2035年人口承 载力在8.79亿人和16.98亿人之间，不同的生产经营和消费方式对中国是否能实现人、粮平衡具有较大的 作用。 |
| 关键词: 中国 2035 人粮关系 情景分析 |
| DOI：10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.20110305 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:中国科学院知识创新工程重点方向项目（kycx-sw-333）;2010年度山东省优秀中青年科学家科研奖励基金计划 （BS2010SF002） |
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| SCENARIO ANALYSIS OF RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN POPULATION AND GRAIN IN CHINA IN 2035 |
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Zhang Jing
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Dezhou University， Shandong 253023/Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research， CAS， Beijing 100101
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| Abstract: |
| The different scenarios， including cultivated land area， replanting index， grain ratio of sown area， pro- duction per planting area and grain consumption per capita， were set up in this paper for discussing the grain pro- ductivity and population carrying capacity in China at the county scale. The future relationship between the grain productivity land population carrying capacity was also analyzed under these scenarios of 2035. The paper drew conclusions that under these different combination scenarios， the population carrying capacity of China in 2035 was between 879 million and 1，698 million. The different management and consumption method will play a key role in realizing the balance between population growth and food production. |
| Key words: Relationship between population and grain Scenarios China |
