| 摘要: |
| ［目的］文章重点对长江流域春季油菜花期预报方法进行研究。［方法］利用1994—2007年长江流域45个站点的油菜发育期数据和逐日气温资料，分析了长江流域油菜花期的特征。依据油菜在不同发育期时段的累积积温，选择0℃、5℃、10℃不同下限温度分别计算积温指标建立花期预报模型，并应用于2018年春季长江流域站点的花期预报，将预报结果与实况进行对比，检验不同积温指标对长江流域油菜花期预报的效果。［结果］结果表明：长江流域油菜花期主要集中在2—4月初，开花时间呈现出自西南到东北逐渐延后开放的趋势； 长江流域油菜盛放观赏时间较长，自西南地区2月底到东部地区安徽江苏一带3月下旬到4月初会陆续迎来油菜盛放期。长江流域油菜在抽薹和开花时段中从抽薹始期到开花盛期阶段所需的累积积温最高，开花始期到开花普遍期阶段所需的累积积温最少。［结论］利用积温指标预报的开花始期时间效果总体较好，但普遍较实际开花期偏早，部分站点偏差较大，其中以0℃积温指标建立的预报方法效果最好、5℃积温指标次之、10℃积温指标效果相对较差。 |
| 关键词: 油菜发育期积温指标长江流域花期预报 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:S5654 |
| 基金项目:中国气象局公共气象服务中心业务基金重点项目“生活类气象指数业务化流程的优化与改进”（K2017006） |
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| RESEARCH ON THE FORECAST METHOD OF RAPE FLORESCENCE IN THE YANGTZE RIVER BASIN |
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Li Wenjing1, Huang Weiwei2※,Li Qian3,Sun Qianqian3,Luo Yan4
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1. Public Meteorological Service Centre, China Meteorological Administration , Beijing 100081, China; 2. Huafeng Meteorological Media Group, Beijing 100081, China; 3. Vedio and Audio Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China;4. Anhui Public Meteorological Service Centre, Hefei,Anhui 230031, China
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| Abstract: |
| This paper focuses on the study on the prediction method of spring rape flowering period in the Yangtze River basin. According to the data of rapeseed development and daily temperature collected from the 45 observatories in the Yangtze River basin during the period of 1994-2007, the characteristics of rape flowering period were analyzed. Based on the accumulated temperature of each developmental phase of rape, the accumulative temperature indicators at 0℃, 5℃ and 10℃ were selected to establish the forecast models, and applied to the rape flowering forecast of the Yangtze River basin in the spring of 2018. Comparison of the forecast results and the actual observations was conducted, the effect of different accumulated temperature indicators on rape flowering prediction in Yangtze River basin was tested. The results showed that rape flowering in Yangtze River basin was mainly concentrated in February to early April, blooming from southwest to northeast in Yangtze River basin gradually. The rapeseeds in the Yangtze River basin had a long viewing time. At the end of February in Southeast China to the late March till early April in eastern region like Anhui and Jiangsu province, rapeseeds would be in bloom successively. In the Yangtze River basin, the accumulated temperature required for the rape from the beginning of the pumping stage to the flowering stage was the highest, while the accumulated temperature required from the flowering initiation stage to the flowering universal stage was the least. Comparison of the three models for predicting rape flowering using accumulative temperature indicator at 0℃, 5℃and 10℃ respectively, most of the rapeseed flowering forecast is good, but the predicted rape flowering time is generally earlier than the actual flowering period, and there is a large deviation between the prediction and observation of few stations. The prediction method using 0℃ accumulated temperature indicator performs best, the 5℃ indicators comes second, and the 10℃ indicator is relatively poor. |
| Key words: rape developmental phase accumulated temperature Yangtze River flowering forecast |
