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收入增长、饮食结构转变与食物系统碳排放——来自中国6省住户调查数据的证据
朱文博1,李国景2,陈永福3,颜珅4
1.中国社会科学院农村发展研究所,北京 100732;2.中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所,北京 100081;3.中国农业大学经济管理学院,北京 100083;4.浙江理工大学经济管理学院,杭州 310018
摘要:
目的 食物系统碳排放在全球碳排放中的比重已达到30%。聚焦居民收入增长对食物消费结构变化的影响及其带来的碳排放效应,从饮食结构视角考察居民收入增长导致的食物系统碳排放变动。方法 文章从微观视角运用EASI需求系统模型分析不同收入增长模式下食物系统碳排放的可能增长路径。结果 (1)收入增长会使碳排放密集型的牛羊肉等动物类食物的消费量快速增长;(2)在不考虑收入分布变化的收入增长10%~50%的情景下,人均食物系统碳排放的变动在-5.23%~13.99%,收入差距缩小和中等收入群体壮大的收入增长模式则会使排放进一步增加;(3)在收入增长幅度低于30%时,农业减排技术进步可以有效中和食物系统碳排放增长,反映出农业减排技术进步对于减缓食物系统碳排放的重要性和有限性。结论 有必要制定依靠农业减排技术创新为核心的综合减排策略,进一步促进饮食的健康和环境协同增效,引导居民的饮食结构向果蔬等植物类食物及“低畜肉,高禽、蛋、奶、水产品”的动物类饮食结构转变。
关键词:  收入增长  膳食结构  碳排放  食物系统  EASI模型
DOI:10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.20230708
分类号:F426;F323;X24
基金项目:中国社会科学院创新工程项目“大食物观下的食物供给能力研究”(2023NFSB09);国家马铃薯产业技术体系项目“马铃薯产业经济研究”(CARS-9);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项“耕地科技创新学科体系建设与战略研究”(Y2022ZK22);2021年度中央农办农业农村部乡村振兴专家咨询委员会软科学课题“我国粮食需求量峰值预测研究”(RKX20213204)
INCOME GROWTH, DIETARY TRANSITION AND CARBON EMISSIONS IN THE FOOD SYSTEM*——EVIDENCE FROM HOUSEHOLD SURVEY DATA IN SIX PROVINCES IN CHINA
Wenbo Zhu1, Guojing Li2, Chen Yongfu3, Yan Shen4
1.Rural Development Institute, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 100732, China;2.Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China;3.College of Economics and Management, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China;4.School of Economics and Management, Zhejiang Sci-Tech University, Hangzhou 310018, Zhejiang, China
Abstract:
The share of food system carbon emissions in global carbon emissions has reached 30%. Under the background of carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals, it is becoming increasingly important to examine changes in carbon emissions in food systems caused by the growth of residents' incomes. This research focused on the impact of Chinese residents' income growth on the changes in food consumption structure and its carbon emissions effects, and analyzed the possible growth paths of food system carbon emissions under different income growth scenarios from a micro perspective. The results were showed as follows. (1) Income growth rapidly increased the consumption of carbon-intensive beef and mutton and other animal foods; (2) Under the scenario of income growth of 10%~50% that did not consider changes in income distribution, changes in per capita carbon emissions from the food system were between -5.23% and 13.99%. In addition, the income growth pattern of narrowing the income gap and expanding middle-income groups further increased emissions; (3) When the income growth rate was less than 30%, technological progress in agricultural emission reduction could effectively neutralize the carbon emissions, which showing the importance and limitation of agricultural emission reduction technology in mitigating the carbon emissions of the food system. Therefore, it is necessary to formulate a comprehensive emission reduction strategy that relies on agricultural emission reduction technology innovation as the core. And it is essential to promote a healthy diet and environmental synergy. In addition, it can guide the residents' dietary structure to change to plant foods such as fruits and vegetables and animal foods that are "low in livestock meat, high in poultry, eggs, milk, and aquatic products".
Key words:  income growth  dietary change  carbon emissions  food system  EASI model