| 摘要: |
| 目的 极端气候频发，导致中国粮食产业链供应链系统不确定性增加，小麦作为重要的口粮品种需要重点关注。从厄尔尼诺事件的视角，分析对中国小麦生产分布的影响效应和作用渠道，对建立气候变化影响中国小麦生产分布的长效机制、保障中国粮食安全具有重要的现实意义。方法 文章基于1978—2022年中国省级面板数据，运用生产规模指数和自然断点法全面分析小麦生产分布时空演化特征，进而采用双向固定效应模型和中介效应模型，论证了厄尔尼诺事件对小麦生产分布的影响效应及作用渠道。结果 （1）厄尔尼诺事件会显著减少中国小麦播种面积，对小麦生产分布产生不利影响。（2）降水量和气温是厄尔尼诺事件影响中国小麦生产分布的两个主要的作用渠道，即存在“厄尔尼诺事件发生→降雨/气温格局改变→小麦生产分布调整”的影响路径。（3）与东南沿海麦区相比，厄尔尼诺事件只对黄淮海麦区、长江中游麦区以及西北麦区的生产分布存在不利影响。结论 因此，应该完善和优化农业气象灾害监测和预警系统，结合中国各区域的气候变化特征合理调整小麦种植方案，加强适应气候变化的小麦品种培育力度。 |
| 关键词: 厄尔尼诺 气候变化 小麦生产 降水量 气温 |
| DOI：10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.20250521 |
| 分类号:F323.1;S162.5 |
| 基金项目:2021年国家社会科学基金一般项目“新中国粮食价格政策演进内在逻辑与改革战略取向研究”（21BJL001） |
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| THE IMPACT OF EL NINO ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF WHEAT PRODUCTION IN CHINA |
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Huang Ziyan, Sun Zhongye, Cao Peng
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College of Economics and Trade, Henan University of Technology, Zhengzhou 450001, Henan, China
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| Abstract: |
| The frequent occurrence of extreme weather has raised uncertainty in China's grain industrial chain and supply chain system, and wheat, as a vital ration variety, must be prioritized. Analyzing the impact and functionary channels of El Nino events on the distribution of wheat production is of great practical significance for establishing a long-term mechanism of climate change affecting China's wheat production distribution and ensuring China's food security. Based on provincial-level panel data in China from 1978 to 2022, this paper comprehensively analyzed the spatio-temporal evolution of wheat production distribution in China by using the production scale index and the natural breakpoint method. Then the two-way fixed-effects model and the mediated-effects model were used to demonstrate the impact and functionary channels of El Nino events on the distribution of wheat production. Three findings were found by this study: (1) El Ni?o events would lead to a reduction in the area sown to wheat in China, which would have a negative impact on the distribution of wheat production. (2) Precipitation and temperature were the two main functional channels through which El Nino events affected the distribution of wheat production. There was an influence path that went like this: "the occurrence of El Nino events → the change of rainfall or temperature pattern → the adjustment of wheat production distribution." (3) Compared with the southeast coastal region, El Ni?o events only adversely affected wheat production in the Huang-Huai-Hai region, the middle regions of the Yangtze River, and the northwestern region. Therefore, enhancing the monitoring and early warning system for agrometeorological disasters, rationally modifying the wheat planting program in accordance with the climate change characteristics of each wheat production region in China, and strengthening the cultivation of wheat varieties adapted to climate change. |
| Key words: El Nino climate change wheat production precipitation temperature |
