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“十三五”时期我国苜蓿产业科技进步贡献变动及“十四五”展望
张浩,王明利,李旭君,梁耀文
中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,北京 100081
摘要:
目的 苜蓿产业对于满足优质饲草供应、推动草食畜牧业高质量发展,保障国家食物安全具有重要战略意义。科技进步是推动苜蓿产业提质增效的重要抓手,为探究“十三五”时期我国苜蓿产业科技进步贡献变动情况,找准影响苜蓿产业生产技术效率的关键因素,以期为“十四五”时期我国苜蓿产业发展的科技进步方向和路径提供经验参考。方法 文章基于2015—2020年苜蓿产业跟踪调查数据,运用随机前沿分析模型对苜蓿生产技术效率与技术进步率进行了测算分析。结果 “十三五”时期,我国苜蓿产业狭义技术进步率为5.72%,狭义科技进步贡献率为52.50%,技术进步已成为苜蓿产业增长的主要动力;生产技术效率均值为0.8751,苜蓿生产者的受教育程度、机械化水平、气候灾害冲击等因素对苜蓿生产技术效率有显著影响。结论 基于此,该文提出了提高苜蓿机械化水平,健全机械配套支撑体系;提升苜蓿生产者素质,加强科技培训推广力度;做好气候灾害预警工作,增强苜蓿产业抗风险能力等政策建议。展望“十四五”时期,苜蓿产业科技进步潜力巨大,应当重点推进苜蓿良种研发和规模化繁育水平、苜蓿生产与加工新技术、苜蓿机械国产化水平,聚焦苜蓿产业集群建设,产业扶持政策精准发力,助力我国苜蓿产业再上一个新台阶。
关键词:  苜蓿产业  随机前沿分析  技术效率  科技进步贡献率  “十四五”展望
DOI:10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.20230719
分类号:F326.3
基金项目:财政部和农业农村部:“国家现代农业产业技术体系”(CARS-34);“中国农业科学院科技创新工程项目”(ASTIP-IAED-2023-01)
THE CHANGES IN THE CONTRIBUTION OF SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS OF CHINA’S ALFALFA INDUSTRY DURING THE 13TH FIVE YEAR PLAN PERIOD AND THE PROSPECT OF THE 14TH FIVE-YEAR PLAN PERIOD
Zhang Hao, Wang Mingli, Li Xujun, Liang Yaowen
Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
Abstract:
The alfalfa industry has important strategic significance for meeting the supply of high-quality forage, promoting the high-quality development of herbivorous animal husbandry, and ensuring national food safety. Scientific and technological progress is an important starting point to promote the improvement of the quality and efficiency of the alfalfa industry, which is to explore the changes in the contribution of scientific and technological progress of the alfalfa industry in China during the 13th Five Year Plan period, identify the key factors affecting the production and technological efficiency of the alfalfa industry, and provide an experience reference for the direction and path of scientific and technological progress of alfalfa industry development in China during the 14th Five Year Plan period. Based on follow-up survey data of the alfalfa industry from 2015 to 2020, this paper calculated and analyzed the technological efficiency and technological progress rate of alfalfa production by using the stochastic frontier analysis model. The results showed that during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, the narrow technological progress rate of the alfalfa industry in China was 5.72%, and the contribution rate of narrow technological progress was 52.50%. Technological progress became the main driving force for the growth of the alfalfa industry; the average production technology efficiency was 0.875 1. The education level of alfalfa producers, the level of mechanization, the impact of climate disasters and other factors had a significant impact on the production technology efficiency of alfalfa. Therefore, based on this, it is proposed to improve the mechanization level of alfalfa and improve the supporting system of machinery, improve the quality of alfalfa producers and strengthen the promotion of scientific and technological training. Meanwhile, we should do a good job in climate disaster early warning and strengthen the anti-risk ability of the alfalfa industry. Looking forward to the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the alfalfa industry has a great potential, it should focus on promoting the research and development of improved alfalfa varieties and large-scale breeding, new technologies for alfalfa production and processing and alfalfa machinery production development. In addition, it should focus on the construction of alfalfa industry clusters, and implement precise industrial support policies to help China's alfalfa industry reach a new level.
Key words:  alfalfa industry  stochastic frontier analysis  technical efficiency  contribution rate of scientific and technological progress  prospects for the 14th Five-year plan